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Sports ANALyst
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Oct 13, 2004
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Took a bath near the end of the pool play. A lesson to be learned... Don't force bets that aren't there. I usually do a good job adhering to my rule but somewhere along the line that went out the window with South Korea yesterday. Just an elementary move and I paid for it accordingly. Finished 11-14 and down 3892 in pool play.

Going with draw in the opener. I see Swedes have been very impressive, especially in hard-fought draw with England when they trailed both 1-0 and 2-1... Germans are better team but they could be hurt by playing in piss-poor Group A, and they are much more attack-oriented than in the past. I think the Swedes can hurt them with a set piece. I see it being either 1-1 or 2-2 at end of regulation. Could be a high-scoring game but thinking more along lines of 1-1 as both teams will be a little cautious because they were expected to be here and this is the first real 'elimination' game for either team.

Prediction: GER 1, SWE 1 - Germans win it in extra time

The play: SWE plus 1/2 plus 156 - 600 to win 936
DRAW plus 290 - 400 to win 1160

In the second game Saturday, don't see any way how Argentina won't rough up Mexicans but will say that La Volpe, as much of an asshole as he is, will certainly have them ready. He is an Argentine native. If the favorites play as well as they did in group play this will be a massacre but not interested in laying 300 or so in a matchup where the two teams have gone 1-1-1 in their last three meetings. Inspired Mexicans show up but it won't be enough. Value lies in the total in this matchup as the money will pour in on Argentina as the day moves along. If you want them, get them now.

Prediction: ARG 3, MEX 1

THe play: OVER 2.5 goals plus 107 - 1300 to win 1391
OVER 3.5 goals plus 280 - 500 to win 1400

Good luck all, back with tomorrow's a little later...

:smoker2:
 

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Handicapper
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the squarest guy I know in the World is making his largest wager ever (including NFL) on Argentenia. He knows little about soccer other than ESPN and has used words like LOCK, 100%, guarentee.

Lets just say Im on the other side pretty big big big.
 

Sports ANALyst
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funny stuff Trytrytry, hope you took a half-goal or goal-and-a-half... easy money lol...

Well a very frustrating start to the knockout round. Sweden was out of it after the 12th minute, playing with 10 men for more than half of the game.

And what can you say about the Mexico/Argentina game? Two goals in the first 10 minutes, then nothing til the 98th... Very frustrating to watch two teams who openly enjoy playing free and exciting soccer tone it down the entire second half and basically brace themselves for overtime. I saw it coming about the 55th minute and lemme tell you, a very sickening feeling.

Onto Sunday, where I have been talking about betting against Ecuador in a meaningful game since they qualified for the second round after beating Costa Rica. Now I get the chance, but this England team is a shell of what it should be, with Rooney still not fit and Owen now out for the next few months. That leaves Crouch up front and maybe Gerrard but I gotta think there's no way England will let Ecuador compete for the entire 90 minutes without at least winning by one goal.

I'm going to try it this way:

The play: England -1/2 goal - 201 - 4020 to win 2000

England -1 1/2 goals plus 160 - 500 to win 800

THe other game tomorrow will be fun to watch but I've got no opinion either way; lean to the Dutch but the price is no good. I was hoping to take at least +160.

Monday I think Italy shows just how tough Group E was to get out of in a convincing win over the Socceroos, who are just happy to be here. Lay it with the Italians.

The play: Italy -198 - 1980 to win 1000

Ukraine really stunk up the joint the other day but they pitched another shutout, something Switzerland did three straight times in group play. If this one gets to three and the ARG/MEX game couldn't, well then you'll just have to take my money...

THe play: UKR/SUI UNDER 2.5 -175 - 2625 to win 1500

Might parlay all three if Pinny gets the nads to put up odds on SUI/UKR in its parlays....

Back sometime Monday afternoon, GL to all from now til then...
 

Sports ANALyst
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Well, good trip to the beach, won the last three bets, back in the saddle, all is good...

14-17 and down 2692 heading into today.

Playing Ghana. They are the only African team left and they should give Brazil problems. As I have said repeatedly, Group E was by far the most difficult and with Ghana being able to make it out, it shows just how solid they played when they had to. Not having Essien will hurt their chances to win but they fouled more than anyone in the prelims and me thinks their physical tactics will frustrate the Brazilians, who prefer a much more finesse game. Important for the ref to let them play... if he does, watch out. Taking the 1.5 for insuranc but PLEASE don't be surprised if this goes to extra time.

Prediction: BRA 1, GHA 1

The play: Ghana plus 1.5 plus 105 - 1500 to win 1575
 

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